September 18, 2014 – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released its September 2014 Outlook for Principal Field Crops, updating the 2013-14 crop year numbers as well as forcasting the 2014-15 crops numbers. The 2013-14 crop year, ending July 31, showed the results of favorable conditions growing conditions with an increase to production by 27% or 97 Million tonnes. This increase in production was less dramatic as low-carry in numbers from 2012-13 were balanced out. The large supply and extreme winter created some additional transportation issues but Canadian exports rose by 13%. However, large supplies and lower prices, led to a significant increase in carry-out numbers for 2013-14.
For 2014-15crop year, production is expected to decline across all crops due to wet seeding conditions as well as reduced average yields. Despite high carry-in numbers, supply is also forecast to decrease, creating less demand on infrastructure. An abundance of world supply will continue to push prices lower but a lower Canadian dollar should provide some price support to farm prices in Canada.
Soybean Outlook
2014-15 soybean production is expected to rise with a 22% increase in acres to 22 million hectares, even though yields are forecast to be lower than 2012-13 growing year. Exports are expected to increase to 4.2 Million tonnes, despite competition from increased US production. Prices are forecast to decline due to this increased US production as well as strong world supply numbers.
Dry Pea Outlook
2013-14 dry pea exports were slightly higher than the previous crop year but a large carry-out still remains despite record domestic use. For 2014-15, dry pea production is expected to decrease 10% to 3.4 Million tonnes, but this will still be the second largest crop in history. Exports are forecast to increase to key markets of India, Bangladesh and China but high carry-out numbers will continue to depress market prices.
Dry Beans Outlook
In 2013-14, dry bean exports increased even though there were limited Canadian supplies. For 2014-15, production is expected to increase, mostly due to a 40% increase in seeded acres – mainly in Ontario. This has been moderated by slightly lower yields in Western Canada. Exports in 2014-15 are expected to increase slightly but increased competition from US production may create higher carry-outs and lower prices.
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